08 equities outlook - a catalyst for property?

REITs,LPTs, Residential, Commercial

08 equities outlook - a catalyst for property?

Postby big al » Wed Jan 23, 2008 5:25 pm

With the correction we're having, and lower growth forecast for 2008 (The Australian published an article prior to the correction where the median forecast of analysts surveyed was for 8% growth in 08), given that a lot of investors feel the need to always be invested, do you think that we will see more people pull funds from the share portfolios and invest in property? Is property about to get a little burst of demand?
big al
 
Posts: 332
Joined: Thu May 08, 2003 2:13 pm
Location: brisbane

Re: 08 equities outlook - a catalyst for property?

Postby Judd » Thu Jan 24, 2008 8:40 am

Don't know but property, through cheap credit, was part of the problem in the first place. Still crappier yields than shares and a bloody darn sight more illiquid. Just costs too much in time and money to get into it and/or sell. Life has been more pleasant since we sold a few years ago the last of the rental we held. Wont touch the stuff ever again.

However, you can be sure that those who have been burnt over the recent days and months will consider shares to be so risky that they will never touch them again and only put their money into bricks and mortar. That will probably have an upward impact on property prices, which in the long run will cause interest rates to rise, etc, etc. Nevertheless, these little muppets will be happy because "We are no longer invested in those risky shares are we? And property prices never go down." Oh just don't get me started on this one.
Regards
Judd
Judd
 
Posts: 1124
Joined: Thu Oct 09, 2003 11:58 am

Re: 08 equities outlook - a catalyst for property?

Postby Judd » Wed Jan 30, 2008 5:48 pm

If shares going bad are supposed to be good for properties, then I don't wish to have anything to do with this number. Talk about a wrong way bet. And I would hope the advisers to the deal have foregone or returned their fees but I doubt it.

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/b ... 273699.ece


M&B up for sale after taking £390m property hit


Mitchells & Butlers signalled yesterday that it was open to offers after taking a £391 million hit from hedging an aborted £4.5 billion property venture with Robert Tchenguiz.

Sources said that Punch Taverns was interested in all or part of M&B’s pubs and restaurants although discussions had not taken place.

The huge cash hit – equivalent to nearly two years’ of profits – was caused by a disastrous bet on interest and inflation rates which M&B made to secure finance for the property deal. The loss has cost the job of Karim Naffah, the finance director, and triggered a “strategic review”. All bonuses for executive directors were also scrapped.

The bet was particularly bad for Mr Tchenguiz, who is suffering paper losses on investments in J Sainsbury’s and SCi Entertainment. Mr Tchenguiz owns 22 per cent of M&B and recently bought a 3 per cent stake.

Other shareholders, who are expected to question the board at tomorrow’s annual meeting, questioned whether Tim Clarke, the chief executive, and Roger Carr, the chairman, could survive. Mr Clarke, who previously insisted the loss was not a resignation matter, said yesterday that he had tendered his resignation but that it had been rejected by the board.

M&B, which owns the All Bar One and Harvester brands, said last year that it planned to place 1,500 pubs and restaurants in a 50-50 joint venture with Mr Tchenguiz’s R20 investment vehicle. The deal was designed to return £1 billion to shareholders.

When the credit crunch hit in July last year the deal fell apart but the hedges remained. Yesterday’s closing of the positions triggered a £391 million pretax cost, £274 million posttax, and will lead to a £119 million exceptional loss this year. M&B claimed that it had kept open the hedges on the advice of its financial advisers, which include Citigroup, KPMG and Rathbones, because they believed that a deal could still be pulled off.

However, one adviser said that it had played no part in “curious advice” to keep open the hedges in a “vacuum where there was no deal”.

Analysts at BlueOar Securities described the loss as a “monumental, career-ending debacle of the first order” and said that it was “hard to see how anyone associated with this catastrophe can stay with the company”.

A bitter blow — How to spill £391m

— M&B forms a joint venture (JV) with Robbert Tchenguiz to release value from its property assets

— They approach banks about raising the funds needed for a sale and leaseback type deal

— Citigroup and RBS agree, but only if M&B takes out a hedge to protect them against default by the JV

— M&B sets up two hedges; one against inflation falling and the other against interest rates rising

— The credit crunch forces the JV to cancel the property deal as the banks withdraw funding

— M&B, advised by its banks, decides to keep the hedges open believing the deal might yet be possible

— Inflation rises, interest rates fall forcing M&B into a £391m loss on its wrong-way bets
Regards
Judd
Judd
 
Posts: 1124
Joined: Thu Oct 09, 2003 11:58 am




Return to Property

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests