assorted (engineering) Co's

benthonic · by **benthonic** » Tue Jan 12, 2010 12:22 pm

It is an interesting area indeed

when an industry is sold or moves OS or whatever, it is very hard to recover it to Aust. The only way value add is going to come is through specialist just-in-time high tech non-generic tailored local solutions. Bulky goods come into it as well due to transport mobilisation and response time issues.

Invariably the you-know-where product is down-engineered and less robust, though quality control seems to be getting better. In the Japan->Korea->China migration, I wouldn't like to think there is any more stops on this line. India/ Burma/ Bangladesh? p'raps. Africa ? probably not.

Depreciation and other costs, and of course labour input, are very important in the determination as to whether such industries stay. The curent demand from the Resources Story is possibly the last chance to hold/ grow such companies as you mention CV, but the ability for some new kid on the block to set up a manufacturing base is slight. Mostly it will be the assemblers/ project managers getting a share of the action.

benthonic · by **benthonic** » Wed Jan 27, 2010 3:59 pm

Forecast net-debt-to-equity ratios as at 30 June 2010 for various engineering companies:

Large caps:
Downer EDI 35%
Leighton Holdings 27%
Transfield Services 37%
UGL 20%
WorleyParsons 29%

Small to mid caps:
Ausenco* 11%
Bradken 80%
Boart Longyear* 9%
Imdex 8%
Monadelphous Net cash
Norfolk** 90%
Programmed** 34%
The MAC Services 27%
Sedgman 2%
WDS 14

Key projects to drive earnings for E&C stocks in 2010:

RGP5 - UGL $165m for structural and mechanical work - Monadelphous $70m for structural, mechanical and piping work - Norfolk $100m for rail signalling work

Pluto - UGL $230m for structural, mechanical and piping work -- Monadelphous $170m for structural, mechanical and piping work -- Downer $70m for electrical and instrumentation work -- Leighton Electrical and instrumentation work (amount not disclosed)

Gorgon -- Leighton $500m for construction of accommodation village --Programmed. Vessel manning and offshore labour hire (amount not disclosed)

PNG -- LNG WorleyParsons Project services work in JV with KBR (amount not disclosed)

Proposed projects supported by fiscal stimulus spend

Northern Link tunnel, Brisbane - Leighton, UGL
Hunter Expressway, NSW -Leighton
Regional Rail Express, Victoria - Leighton, UGL, Downer, Norfolk
National Broadband Network - Leighton, Downer, Transfield

Likely to bid for new LNG work - mainly Gladstone CSG plus offshore WA - probably late 2010 or beyond

• WDS: Likely to bid for upstream field development and gas transmission construction
• UGL: Likely to bid for structural and mechanical work on the construction of the trains
• Monadelphous: Likely to bid for structural, mechanical and piping work on the construction of the plant and associated infrastructure
• WorleyParsons: Likely to bid for upstream field development and other infrastructure work
• Transfield: Likely to bid for water disposal and facilities work
• Downer: Likely to bid for electrical and instrumentation work
• Norfolk: Likely to bid for electrical and instrumentation work
• The MAC Services: Likely to bid for accommodation contracts in and around Gladstone and the Surat Basin

benthonic · by **benthonic** » Thu Feb 04, 2010 2:57 pm

Some of this sector is under pressure, as work is strung out, margins squeezed and delays incurred -

Forge Group upgrades profit guidance
Forge Group Ltd (ASX:FGE) today released updated guidance for the six months ending December 2009. Net profit is expected to be $14.5m, which is up 184pc from $5.1m for the first half of last year and up 21pc from the November 4 guidance of $12.0m for the period under review. Revenue is expected to be $111m, up 16pc from $96m a year ago, but down 8pc from the November 4 forecast of $120m. Operating profit of $19m is up 164pc from $7.2m a year ago and up 27pc from $15m in the November 4 guidance.
"The company continues to secure engineering and construction works and commences the calendar year 2010 with a strong order book," managing director Mr Peter Hutchinson said.

benthonic · by **benthonic** » Tue Feb 23, 2010 9:23 am

in NRW results - the comment

--- "Revenue rose by 2% to $276M but EBITDA fell by 22% due to margins being squeezed in a difficult tendering period in early 2009. "---

Definitely, the rapid slowdown caused a shudder through various companies:
the big Q for this sector - was early 2009 an aberation or it it the new normal?
and second Q - has the market already discounted that rough patch and is looking forward to rosy days/years, pricing it in?

benthonic · by **benthonic** » Fri Aug 13, 2010 10:55 am

revisiting a few of these - some of the smaller outfits have been stellar in a crappy year

ANG Austin
FGE Forge
FWD Fleetwood
BKN Bradken

some have been ho-hum

NWH

some have been awful

NOD Nomad

cungevoi · by **cungevoi** » Sat Aug 14, 2010 8:45 am

Hi Ben yes looks as though BKN is going okay. Just revisiting the old CGVI program. Not sure of latest BKN BRADKEN data, as $NTA figures for many companies have been sliding badly, but here is study.

** PROGRAM FOR SCIENTIFIC ANALYSIS OF COMPANIES (MERGER/ACQUISITION/TAKEOVER)
* SCREEN 1.RECNO. 2107 * COMPANY ** BKN BKN FYR T3MY= UU FTAP= **
** Latest record data held in PRVCALCF File
* Previous data record No 2107 Company: BKN BKN FYR T3 Date: 11/08/2010
* Previous buy price of share $ 7.79
* Dividend cents/share (12mths rolling) 25.00* D:E Pay 49 %
* Net tangible asset backing per share $ 1.31
* Earnings cents/share (12mths rolling) 50.80 Do Study Excl & Incl Abnormal
* Comparative Growth & Value Rating is= 29.42 YLD= 3.2%pa. Ef ff= 4.6%pa.
* PROG: CV140810 24 LOOKS FOR A SHARE WITH A CGVI GREATER THAN 24 * & *YES*
* Ist STAGE FILTER SELECTS BKN BKN FY CGVI= 29.42% AS A BUY STUDY *

* CALC Opt= 17.6 1.4y Acu=248.2 0.1y Hld= 28.1 0.9y ?ABERT'N? HMf?
* ! ABERRATION: CALC'n MAYBE SUSPECT. PRIMARY Estimated Modifications Made ! *
* OPT. BUY= $ 17.61 ACC TO= $ 21.13 AMf!. HOLD TO=$ 23.24 HMf? ?AbernA?
* Div:Eps Rtn= 49 %. $PRICE @ 5Yr $8.92 & @ 10Yr $15.68 Experimental Only
*PE 15.3 AAR 11.9% Pgm 1.29 N Nfm 1.0 Y EYL 6.5% Pge 2.35 N Nfe 0.6 N YES= 1
* PE/ROE = 1.285466 ?? VALUE ?? (uses PROF AAR%)
*MVGC a= 5 b= 20 ?b&a. CAUTION? *VGC= 25 ABN? SO CHEK*
* V1= 9.7 * V2= 19.7 YES LIMITS OKAY ?IMBAL? * UDR= 2.33 & IS * A GO *
* THEORETICAL OPT BUY TO $17.61 ACCUM TO $22.89 AMF? a 193 %Mgn
** ??? AN ABERRATION QUESTION MARK IS RAISED ON THIS SHARE ??? **

* PROGRAM: CV140810 COMPANY NAME: BKN BKN FYR T3 CGVI: 29.42
* SHARE: BKN BKN PRICE $ 7.79 DPSc 25.0 NTA$ 1.31 EPSc 50.8 * CGVI= 29.42
* THEORETICAL OPT BUY TO $17.61 a 126% MARGN.> $ 7.79 ACCUM TO $22.89 AMF?
HOLD TO $23.24 HMf? PPMg=198% ? POSSIBLE ABERRATION ? Data:11/08/2010*
*PRICE $ 7.79 $ 8.04 $ 8.29 $ 8.54 $ 8.79 $ 9.04 $ 9.29 $ 9.54
*CGVI% 29.43 29.12 28.84 28.57 28.32 28.08 27.85 27.64
*STUDY. *BUY*. *BUY*. *BUY*. *BUY*. *BUY*. *BUY*. *BUY*. *BUY*. *LEVEL*
*STOPL $ 7.65 $ 7.90 $ 8.14 $ 8.39 $ 8.63 $ 8.88 $ 9.12 $ 9.37 !TRAILING
* UDR = 2.33. W/L RATIO: 77.7% OF PREFERRED ?. LAST PRICE MOVE: *UP*

* Subjective Probability look for count of 10 next two lines.
*PE 15.3 AAR 11.9% Pgm 1.29 N Nfm 1.0 Y EYL 6.5% Pge 2.35 N Nfe 0.6 N YES= 1
*PCI 67 Y UDR 2 Y CCV 29 Y MOS%126 Y Acc%193 Y Hld%198 Y V12 3 Y YES= 7
ENTER PRICE TREND FOR 3 & 12 MNTH Eg DD UD U = UP F = FLAT D = DOWN ?

* Always remember Calculated/Simulated Prices are not necessarily going to be attained, but the Price Direction is of some importance.

benthonic · by **benthonic** » Mon Aug 16, 2010 9:04 am

Hi cungevoi

Austin Engineering (ANG) has BKN on its share registry as 18.6% and this has been creeping up - I was wondering if you could do CGVI on ANG as well

"Austin Engineering Limited (ANG) is an engineering company with manufacturing facilities in Australia, USA and Middle East. The Australian and USA facilities provide fabrication facilities servicing the mining, oil, gas and industrial sectors. The Middle East operation provides specialised products and services for the aluminum smelter industry. Austin owns rights to welding processes and robotic applications to suit product lines, general fabrications and any repetitive production processes.

ANG specialises in niche products like dump truck bodies and shovel heads. It uses internally developed robotic systems to improve manufacturing efficiencies. Organic growth is linked to the mining and commodities boom, particularly in Iron Ore and Coal where ANG has a large presence. Diversification will target new product ranges and a stronger presence in the maintenance services sector. Geographical diversification will focus on the North American market, through Westech, the Middle East with JV partners and strategic alliances style agreements preferred, and execute its South American expansion plans in Chile and Brazil . Austin Engineering reported NPAT up 29% to $14.83m for the year ended 30 June 2009. Revenue from ordinary activities were $179.32m, up 69% from last year. Diluted EPS was 29.39 cents compared to 23.44 cents last year. Net operating cash flow was $21.9m compared to $13.48m last year. The final dividend declared was 6.5 cents, taking the full year dividend to 8 cents compared with 7.5 cents last year."

cungevoi · by **cungevoi** » Mon Aug 16, 2010 3:36 pm

Hi Benthonic Don't have an $NTA for ANG Austin Engineering, Do you have that number, as a bit restricted in my activity at moment. Will put in a theoretical NTA$ of 1.00 to see if it is close to mark as a CGVI probable.

Using latest Fin Review data I have for ANG on 10/08/2010 Price $3.66 DPSc = 8.5, NTA$ $1.00 Guess?, EPSc = 26.32

This gives a CGVI = 27.33 a V1 = 9.51, A V2 = 17.82 so is worth a fuller study.

Gives an OPB of $5.49 and Acc to of $7.14. So worth some thought.

benthonic · by **benthonic** » Mon Aug 16, 2010 3:51 pm

ANG reported today

NTA = 65c ?

cungevoi · by **cungevoi** » Mon Aug 16, 2010 4:11 pm

Hmm wish I had seen your request earlier in day.

** PROGRAM FOR SCIENTIFIC ANALYSIS OF COMPANIES (MERGER/ACQUISITION/TAKEOVER)
* SCREEN 1.RECNO. 2108 * COMPANY ** AUSTIN ENG ANG **
** Latest record data held in PRVCALCF File
* Previous data record No 2108 Company: AUSTIN ENG ANG Date: 08-16-2010
* Previous buy price of share $ 3.50
* Dividend cents/share (12mths rolling) 8.00* D:E Pay 27 %
* Net tangible asset backing per share $ 0.65
* Earnings cents/share (12mths rolling) 29.39 Do Study Excl & Incl Abnormal
* Comparative Growth & Value Rating is= 43.59 YLD= 2.3%pa. Ef ff= 3.3%pa.
* PROG: CV140810 24 LOOKS FOR A SHARE WITH A CGVI GREATER THAN 24 * & *YES*
* Ist STAGE FILTER SELECTS AUSTIN ENG CGVI= 43.59% AS A BUY STUDY *

* CALC Opt= 4.2 1.9y Acu= 2.9 2.8y Hld= 2.4 3.4y ?ABERT'N? AMf! HMf?
* ! ABERRATION: CALC'n MAYBE SUSPECT. PRIMARY Estimated Modifications Made ! *
* OPT. BUY= $ 4.21 ACC TO= $ 5.05 AMf!. HOLD TO=$ 5.55 HMf?
* Div:Eps Rtn= 27 %. $PRICE @ 5Yr $5.63 & @ 10Yr $10.78 Experimental Only
*PE 11.9 AAR 13.9% Y Pgm 0.86 Y Nfm 1.4 Y EYL 8.4% Pge 1.42 N Nfe 0.9 Y YES= 3
* PE/ROE = .8580352 *YES UNDER FAIR VALUE (uses PROF AAR%)
*MVGC a= 5 b= 33 *a&b OK *VGC= 38 ABN? SO CHEK*
* V1= 10.7 * V2= 32.9 YES LIMITS OKAY * UDR= -0.21 & IS NOT * A GO *
* THEORETICAL OPT BUY TO $4.21 ? & POSSIBLE ABERRATION OR DATA ERROR ?
ACCUM TO $2.90 AMf!. a-17 %Mgn
* ALWAYS FIX A STOP LOSS SELL LEVEL PRICE AT WHICH YOU MUST GET OUT *
** ??? AN ABERRATION QUESTION MARK IS RAISED ON THIS SHARE ??? **
*WARNING: IF A HIGH RESULT IS ENCOUNTERED CHECK THAT THE DATA IS CORRECT & DOES
NOT INCLUDE A VERY LOW $NTA A SPECIAL DIVIDEND OR A ONE-OFF ABNORMAL FIGURE

* PROGRAM: CV140810 COMPANY NAME: AUSTIN ENG ANG CGVI: 43.59
* SHARE: AUSTIN EN PRICE $ 3.50 DPSc 8.0 NTA$ 0.65 EPSc 29.4 * CGVI= 43.59
* THEORETICAL OPT BUY TO $4.21 a 20% MARGN.> $ 3.50 HOLD TO $5.55 HMf?
PPMg= 59% ? POSSIBLE ABERRATION ? Data:08-16-2010*
*PRICE $ 3.50 $ 3.65 $ 3.80 $ 3.95 $ 4.10 $ 4.25 $ 4.40 $ 4.55
*CGVI% 43.57 43.13 42.73 42.35 42.01 41.68 41.39 41.10
*STUDY *SPCL* *SPCL* *SPCL* *SPCL* *SPCL* *SPCL* *SPCL* *SPCL*. *LEVEL*
*STOPL $ 3.44 $ 3.58 $ 3.73 $ 3.88 $ 4.03 $ 4.17 $ 4.32 $ 4.47 !TRAILING
* UDR = -0.21. W/L RATIO: -7.0% OF PREFERRED ?. LAST PRICE MOVE: START

* Subjective Probability look for count of 10 next two lines.
*PE 11.9 AAR 13.9% Y Pgm 0.86 Y Nfm 1.4 Y EYL 8.4% Pge 1.42 N Nfe 0.9 Y YES= 3
*PCI 40 Y UDR -0 CCV 44 Y MOS% 20 Y Acc%-17 Hld% 59 Y V12 3 Y YES= 5

may like to put this up on another forum, let me know if you have filled your bucket yet.

cungevoi · by **cungevoi** » Mon Aug 16, 2010 6:25 pm

.......ANG continued. Although drooping tail of the All Ords at the close means there is probably no great hurry. Cheers

jonasson · by **jonasson** » Tue Aug 17, 2010 8:16 pm

G'day benthonic, you said :some have been awful

NOD Nomad

Note that in today's update, NOD states that they are writing down goodwill from the balance sheet
from $82m to $31m.

Words escape me- after some thought, I cannot add to this!

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