assorted (engineering) Co's

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assorted (engineering) Co's

Postby Disco Stu » Wed Sep 23, 2009 10:41 am

Hey Ian, thought I might reply back in my part of the world - don't want to clutter up the NOD thread over there (that is if you are indeed the same Ian as over at SS - apologies if not! lol ).


ALS - looks pretty fully priced to me just atm. Not sure I'm fully comfortable with the exposure to building, despite any flow through from Gorgon, etc. I do like it's position in the supply chain or many supply chains though. I have dropped it onto a watchlist that I keep a close eye on though.

ASL - picked up quite an exposure for this one through a punt on BDL. I had a small position in that one, then noticed volume increasing so took up some more. Glad I did as ASL came out with its bid for it. Best of both worlds, ASL is a good Co and quite vunerable itself to being bought out.

PGA - bought a token position as per the thread "Market Movers - sky". Advertisers are pretty much coming off the bottom of their cycle atm, so there could be some more upside here. Probably not in for the LT with this one as prefer to allocate capital elsewhere and only in it for ST for the moment, as per the other thread.

TWD - interesting Co to keep an eye on, but outside my view point atm.

RCG - with Sol Lew on the prowl could be one to watch for any vol spikes.

DUE - have looked at this one before, but don't feel too comfortable with the structure or the debt levels. Certainly got a lot of upside if the debt market continue to improve, but still have doubts about the LT direction or sustainability of the current recovery, so will stand aside for the moment.

ENV - debt levels probably constrain any further growth through aquisitions, but it is certainly tied into the hot sectors atm - energy and energy distribution. Vunerable to being bought out imho.

OAK - very attractive PE and like many Co's massive upside from where it is compared to where it was. However, still not comfortable with commercial property, has a fair bit of current debt and again just fret as to the sustainability of the recovery. I think the bold investor could make a fair bit of $ on many of the companies with commercial property. Have added it to my property watch list, but doubt I will be moving into it.

PBD - as with the other commercial and res property Co's mentioned so far interesting. Upside from where it has been is massive, BUT, as with other Co's concerns re debt and the LT direction of recovery. Have this one on an existing watch list, but might move it up to a list I watch a little more intently. Speeding ticket was good to see. Agressive discout rate used in recent report, in terms of aggressively conservative - s/b more widespread in the prop sector imho, but good to see they're being conservative and realistic.

Just my thoughts really. Some Co's a bit more familiar with, eg ASL which i was considering buying before I realised I was going to end up in them anyway through BDL. Others just impressions from having a look at them last night.

Cheers for raising them up to my attention, always appreciate having interesting Co's being pointed out to me.
Last edited by Disco Stu on Thu Sep 24, 2009 1:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: assorted Co's

Postby Ian » Wed Sep 23, 2009 1:33 pm

Disco,
Yes, that's me. Stopped posting on SG some time ago but I 'lurk' from time to time and you 'got me'.
Hello to anyone else who remembers me.

ALS. Yes it certainly is fully priced. I was lucky to get in at 260c so it has been good for me. I am tempted to take profit, or
just arrange free carry for some of my holding but you know how it is when you are having fun. You get greedy!!!!. And
its worth doing a 3-4 year chart to see how far they have fallen. I only had them since April so cap gain is also an issue.
ASL. I got into these at 84c so its another that has done well. But like you I am thinking to hold. Holding is my natural way
anyway. I am by nature a long termer.
PGA. Its the change in the nature of media that attracts me to PGA. It won't all be TV and newspapers in the future. Take
the real estate market for instance, its heavily internet focussed already, and though I don't say its a typical guide to
the future it is an indicator. I keep a close eye on it but I am hoping it will turn out a good long termer.
TWD. I only have a small holding but it has a good track record.
RCG. Now we come to it. I feel this is a very good time to get into this one. From a fully franked divi viewpoint this one
has the capacity to be very pleasing if it returns to divi paying next time round and I fully expect it will. I see no
downside. The sp is currently low so a raid is possibile and as you say, Lew is sitting on a pile of cash trying to find a
home for it and his sole focus is retail.
DUE. Can't argue with your comments.
ENV. Due to the nature of the industry its in its high debt is less of a concern for me. Regulated industry. Only nominal
competition. Forward planning with confidence is easy. Pricing formula's get set in stone for long periods so they know
exactly where they are and don't have to be frightened of shocks. I like it. Unfortunately I missed it at 50c, then again
at 51c and so forth. I have still not got in but I will. I see it as a very good, solid one for the SF.
OAK. Nothing not to like but again I am yet to get in.
PBD. Along with RCG this is another I feel very confident about. The only factor out of control is timing. Already in at very
lows. Its easy to get a decent lump for a small fee when they crash - but only if you have confidence. I don't think
there is any real reason for the latest spike, its probably just due to a new land release PBD is making or maybe
due to a new roadway announcement to their new main development site - sorry I forgot the location name. But I
expect it will soar when that development completion nears and I want to be set in time for that.
Just my opinion of course.

It was interesting to read your list of attractive companies. I had never heard of most of them so it makes interesting reading for me too.
cheers
Ian
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Re: assorted Co's

Postby Disco Stu » Wed Sep 23, 2009 8:14 pm

Hey Ian,

I for one remember your posts. I certainly remembered your name from this Forum, although we tended to post on different threads was probably more a result of different investment approaches and styles. This site still generates some good discussions, abit at lower volumes than some of the other sites. Anyhow, more posters, more ideas.

Glad you had a few companies raised to your own attention from my post. They are all very interesting Co's, basically went looking for any downstream companies that would benefit from the continuation of the mining boom, or at least continued elevated commodity prices. Obviously mining engineering and logistics Co's are prime candidates, and the recent announcements from WPL, Cheveron, etc, re Gorgon, Gladstone, etc, etc have proven to be doubly fortuitous.

For any other lurkers out there, the companies that were being discussed were NOD, LYL, MND, SDM, SWK, MRS, NMS and DCG. The particular thread was in relation to NOD and of recently taking some profits in it (I was feeling it was getting a little topy after its recent strong run - still holding some though, although I tend to trade in and out of some stocks pretty quickly, so this statement might not be true tomorrow). My feeling still is that this sector has run up strongly and some companys are looking very overbought. I've taken some or total profit on several Co's, with the exception of LYL and MND, but would not be adverse to re-entering any of the above Co's if there is a ST pullback.

Anyhow, thanks again for raising some Co's to my attention. I can tell you that a couple have been added to my watchlist! :)

LAter
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Re: assorted Co's

Postby benthonic » Thu Sep 24, 2009 8:16 am

another in the general area of NOD, LYL, MND, SDM, SWK, MRS, NMS and DCG is Forge - FGE:

Forge Group Limited (FGE) provides multi disciplinary project management and construction services, specialising in tank construction, structural mechanical and pipping installation, fabrication, civil contracting and commercial building construction.

Picking up work in WA and seen a shareprice nearly triple in the last few weeks. Africa is a sovereign risk area though. Interestingly had a 'material earnings upgdrade' in June but S/P didn't take off for a while after that. 3c divi.
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Re: assorted Co's

Postby J. Pathe » Thu Sep 24, 2009 10:48 am

Hi Ian, good to hear from you again.

Disco, appreciate your effort to initiate discussion away from the main stream companies.

Here is my contribution in the mining engineering side:-

Austin Engineering - ANG provides specialised dump truck trays, excavator buckets etc for the mining industry. In the manufacture it uses state of the art robotic welding technology. it has manufacture facilities in Australia, USA and South America.

It had a good run to $2.50 and may be fully priced, however watch for break above $2.50.

Cheers
JP
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Re: assorted Co's

Postby Disco Stu » Thu Sep 24, 2009 1:28 pm

Cheers guys - ANG and FGE added to my Civil's watchlist :D
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Re: assorted (engineering) Co's

Postby benthonic » Wed Sep 30, 2009 10:16 am

aother to add to the list (sorry if already mentioned)

WDS - probably seen as a competitor to AJLucas

trading halt, capital raising - buying a CSG pipeline company Titeline Energy for a bit of Qld action
- Platform for organic growth in WDS CSG offering to both existing and new clients
- Extends WDS capabilities, enabling it to provide end-to-end services in the CSG sector (from drilling to gas delivery to LNG plant)

----------------------------------------
quite a few pages on this topic in Wed's Fin Review "portfolio' centrefold
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Re: assorted (engineering) Co's

Postby Disco Stu » Thu Oct 01, 2009 9:50 am

Actually took up a small position in NMS yesterday. Preferred it over MRM in the end, due to lower debt, PE and market cap. Feel that a little of the 'heat' may have come out of it's s/price from a TA perspective and might be a good dip to try and enter. It has been something of a consolidator in the industry and imho is vunerable to be consolidated too at the right price in the longer term.

Benthonic - WDS looks very interesting too. Have added it to my engineering watch list. Cheers.
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Re: assorted (engineering) Co's

Postby Disco Stu » Fri Oct 02, 2009 2:26 pm

Bought back my NOD stake that was responsible for kicking off this thread at 91c this morning. According to my amaturish fib and TA calc's that represent it's 31.8% retractment.... having now put this in writing, watch it fall all the way back to it's 50% retracment mark! lol
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Re: assorted (engineering) Co's

Postby benthonic » Tue Jan 12, 2010 9:08 am

How many others are NODding off at the wheel.
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Re: assorted (engineering) Co's

Postby Disco Stu » Tue Jan 12, 2010 10:13 am

lol - it is a bit that way. I got stopped out of that NOD position a long time back. Bought back in recently in the high 50s, only to sell out on Friday morning for 75c when the chart was telling me its recent rise was looking like stalling for a bit and I was looking at taking profits given last weeks strong run just about everywhere.... sometimes you can be lucky! (in this case very lucky!)

Could not resist, bought back the same stake I sold on Friday for less than half the price today. It is a bit of a LT punt as opposed to a trade. Some of the big sales that have been going through suggests that at least one large LT investor/fund has had enough and is moving on... not good. That the Executive have consistantly said that the management problems are behind them and have come out now with 2 missed profit revisions - does not fill me with a great deal of confidence, but it is in the right sector, and if it does come good, all the merrier.
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Re: assorted (engineering) Co's

Postby cungevoi » Tue Jan 12, 2010 11:41 am

This thread might be a better place for this:

Not a NOD Holder, but visited a private engineering manufacturer recently, ( although more in the field of the toolmaking of the specialist manufacturing of automatic machines that make the required end products; so this would be one level down from the NOD Type company ), and he stated that the last quarter of 2009 was the best in the history of his company, with new orders coming in and the necessity to cut the usual annual staff Christmas break by two weeks.
His view is, especially, that any manufacturer servicing the New Guinea infrastructure projects, presumably the Gas pipeline infrastructure, were best situated to have a great year.

In the drill rig manufacturing arena there is a probable move of this manufacture to You know where, and unless the Federal Government starts to support the Australian Manufacturing Sector in the same way it gave support to the creators of the Global Financial Problem, we will become a nation of quarry workers or Stock Market Trading Jocks, and the latter can only result in a re-run of the same GFC type catastrophy. Stock Trading only transfers wealth, ( despite what Guppy says, pp 55-56 Share Trading ), it is not a creator of wealth. Many will disagree with this, but just do the math and post your calculations, I am willing to learn.

As the smaller service manufacturing industries are a type of bellweather stock for the engineering manufacturing sector, perhaps the swing is about to gain some needed momentum. Cheers.
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