Aussie Dollar

Macro/Micro economic policies and how they affect the markets

Aussie Dollar

Postby muhaha » Wed Sep 29, 2010 4:52 pm

Just cant believe rate at which AUD has shot up, clearly something is not right in this market. Taken we may have an increase in interest rates early next month but the "rate" of the gain is astounding.

This is not good for us in the longer term especially if we are witnessing a process where all major economies are actively debasing their currencies to get a competitive advantage. Strong aussie for the people already in lots of debt means they now have an excuse to buy the big screen TV because its cheaper, upgrade their cars , go for more frequent holidays.

Its hard to play a fair game when every other country are fiddling with their currencies and manipulating their markets.

Not sure who wins with Strong Aussie ? - except the already retired with large term deposits
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Re: Aussie Dollar

Postby benthonic » Thu Sep 30, 2010 10:36 am

Currencies are always tricky, as they move in response to a combination of factors, and are not instigators of anything

cutting and pasting a bit of conventional wisdom from Shane Oliver: (Oliver's Insights - can be found on AMP website)

" ...Another round of global monetary reflation is likely getting underway with the US Federal Reserve (the Fed) and the Bank of England indicating that they are now considering additional monetary easing and Japan undertaking its own easing in moving to push the value of the yen lower. This has major implications for foreign exchange markets, the gold price and the next asset price bubble.
The key driver is the sub-par nature of the recoveries in the US, Japan and Europe and the inability of fiscal policy to respond further due to already high public debt levels. With interest rates at or close to zero, central banks look to be turning to another round of quantitative easing...

" ...There are several implications from another round of monetary easing.
- First, it means another boost to global liquidity which should at least support growth, if not provide an additional boost to growth going forward.
- Second, it will likely be positive for share markets and other listed growth assets as it was through last year following QE1.
-Third, it will be bad for G3 currencies – first the US$, but also the yen and ultimately the euro as its economy lags the US and it is forced to do the same.
- Fourth, Asian and other emerging market currencies are likely to remain key beneficiaries as their central banks engage in tightening and the relative supply of their currencies falls relative to US dollars, yen, British pounds and euros. China’s move last week to allow a faster appreciation in the renminbi will likely help accelerate the rise in Asian currencies.
- Fifth, the increase in the supply of US dollars, yen, British pounds and euros (the latter next year) will be good for gold as investors seek a safe haven from falls in major paper currencies. This explains why gold has recently broken out to a new record high, even though inflation remains benign. The chart below shows that while the gold price has come a long way over the last decade it is still well below its inflation adjusted peak of 1980, when gold rose above US$2,000 an ounce. It will likely head up to a similar level over the next few years.
- Sixth, commodity currencies such as the Australian and Canadian dollars are also likely to be key beneficiaries. Talk of an additional boost to the supply of US dollars via quantitative easing is coming at a time when the RBA is signalling more interest rate hikes and commodity prices are strong all of which are positive for the A$. All the talk of QE2 in the US is helping propel the A$ back to parity against the US$. The chart below showing the value of the A$ since 1901 serves as a reminder that the post float period of the A$ which saw it slip below parity was an aberration. The norm up until early 1982, was for the A$ to trade above parity. This includes the early 1950s when the terms of trade was about as strong as it is now. Back then, one Australian dollar bought US$1.12.
- Finally, another surge in global liquidity will help fertilise the next asset price bubble, the seeds of which have already been sown in the bursting of the last. This could well be in emerging markets or commodities. And, to the extent that emerging market countries intervene to resist appreciation in their currencies, it will only add to the boost in global liquidity. .."

------------------------------------
so, what does that produce? Another load of worry, but not just yet? QE is setting us up for another asset price bubble. I think Aust is sitting better than many, but ..... if things (when things) fall over again, we are in that vulnerable position, of both falling commodity prices and falling currency. but till then, enjoy the ride.
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Re: Aussie Dollar

Postby Disco Stu » Thu Sep 30, 2010 12:29 pm

Disco Stu is leaving the building... he can sometimes be found at http://asxsharenerd.wikispaces.com/
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Re: Aussie Dollar

Postby benthonic » Thu Sep 30, 2010 6:41 pm

the FT article is good, Disco !!

implications drawn from it are pertinant "...The Chinese respond in kind. In the absence of currency adjustments, we are seeing a form of monetary warfare: in effect, the US is seeking to inflate China, and China to deflate the US. Both sides are convinced they are right; neither is succeeding; and the rest of the world suffers.

It is not hard to see China’s point of view: it is desperate to avoid what it views as the dire fate of Japan after the Plaza accord. With export competitiveness damaged by its soaring currency and pressured by the US to reduce its current account surplus, Japan chose not the needed structural reforms, but a huge monetary expansion, instead. The consequent bubble helped deliver the “lost decade” of the 1990s. ......."
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Re: Aussie Dollar

Postby muhaha » Sun Nov 07, 2010 1:35 pm

Global anger mounts at 'clueless' Fed actions
November 6, 2010

Global anger at a fresh round of liquidity injections into the US economy swelled on Friday as Germany called the move "clueless" and emerging nations protested that it will wreak havoc on them.

Harsh criticism poured in as President Barack Obama headed for Asia on a trip he had hoped to use as a springboard for pressuring China to revalue its yuan but may end up in a fractious Group of 20 leaders summit next week.

The United States has been pressing China, largely unsuccessfully, to let its yuan currency rise more quickly to reflect the strength of what is now the world's second-largest economy and help correct global trade imbalances.

The Federal Reserve's decision this week to buy $US600 billion ($591 billion) in long-term bonds with new money to try to revive the flagging US economy have increased fears of more money pouring across borders in search of better returns.

China landed its own blows by saying a US proposal for numerical targets for surpluses and deficits - akin to a range for yuan appreciation - smacked of outmoded central planning that won't win any friends for the United States.

Chinese Vice-Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai, who is China's chief G20 negotiator, told a news briefing that he was also worried at the prospect of a flood of money pouring into global markets in search of higher yields.

"They owe us some explanation," Cui said. "I've seen much concern about the impact of this policy on financial stability in other countries."

Fed liquidity creating problems in other countries

A "common theme" is emerging that "excess liquidity in the US is creating problems in other countries," Brazil's Central Bank Governor Henrique Meirelles told reporters in Chicago.

Resentment abroad stems from worry that Fed pump-priming will hasten the US dollar's slide and cause their currencies to shoot up in value, setting the stage for asset bubbles and making a future burst of inflation more likely.

"With all due respect, US policy is clueless," German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told a conference.

"(The problem) is not a shortage of liquidity. It's not that the Americans haven't pumped enough liquidity into the market, and now to say let's pump more into the market is not going to solve their problems."

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, speaking to students in Florida, seized the opportunity to defend the move by saying "a strong US economy, a recovering economy, is critical, not just for Americans but it's also critical for the global economy."

New US unemployment figures on Friday, showing a surprisingly strong 151,000 jobs were created in October, caused some analysts to question whether the Federal Reserve's pledge to buy up to $US600 billion of Treasury securities was even necessary.

But with a jobless rate stuck at 9.6 per cent, few doubted the Fed will proceed with buying.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel will address US policy in Group of 20 discussions on exchange rates, a government source said, adding that she shared Schaeuble's criticism.

Policymakers from the world's new economic powerhouses in Latin America and Asia have said they would consider fresh steps to curb capital inflows after the Fed's move.

South African Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan said Fed policy "undermines the spirit of multilateral cooperation" that the G20 had sought to achieve. The money will find its way into financial markets of emerging nations with potentially devastating impact on their exports, he charged.

Zhou Xiaochuan, China's central bank governor, said while Beijing could understand that the Fed was implementing more monetary easing in order to stimulate US recovery, it may not be a good policy for the global economy.

Before he left on an Asian trip that will take him to the G20 gathering next week, President Barack Obama said a dramatically realigned political landscape in the United States called for cooperation at home because US global economic leadership was at stake.

"We can't spend the next two years mired in gridlock," Obama said in a reference to the outcome of mid-term elections that put Republicans in control of the US House of representatives. "Other countries, like China, aren't standing still. So we can't stand still either."

No balance

Efforts to reduce imbalances that are destabilizing the global economy will top the agenda of the November 11-12 summit of the Group of 20 forum of leading economies in Seoul.

China and Germany oppose a plan floated by US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner last month to cap current account surpluses and deficits at 4 per cent of gross domestic product.

"Of course, we hope to see more balanced current accounts," Chinese Vice-Foreign Minister Cui Tiankai told a news briefing. "But we believe it would not be a good approach to single out this issue and focus all attention on it. The artificial setting of a numerical target cannot but remind us of the days of planned economies."

Cui, China's chief G20 negotiator, also rejected any attempt to set target ranges for the yuan to appreciate.

"That would indeed be asking us to manipulate the ... exchange rate, and it is something that we will of course not do," Cui said.

The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum in Kyoto, which Geithner will attend, will also provide an opportunity for emerging economies to voice their views of the Fed's action.

Reuters



This could be a sign of a massive reversal in the markets in the near future, the US "recovering" , IMHO i think the US is quite aware that things are probably starting to recover at home (job numbers) but the additional stimulus is just to ensure that there isnt an immediate strengthening of the USD which will nip their recovery.
China is pegging thier currency (which the US probably deems as unfair) , The Japanese intervene to weaken thier currency, the germans hide behind the european union (lets face it a weak euro due to the greeks, portugese , spaniards and the Irish ahd helped the german exports) So what does the US do, if they come out and say hey guys we are recovering the strength in USD will kill thier growth, so I have a feeling QE2 is probably the last. And the excess money in the system will cause a an inflationary effect some where down the track, slowly.

It may be a time to sell aussie and buy USD (but no leverage) :roll:
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Re: Aussie Dollar

Postby benthonic » Fri May 13, 2011 2:29 pm

been following a bit of chat elsewhere; there is an ETF for US Dollar. info can be found at

http://www.betashares.com.au/

trades under the code USD.ASX - visit website, read the PDS. make sure you understand which way it is going. Might be a cheap option if you have a strong conviction of imminent readjustment

Objective - The ETF aims to track the change in price of the United States dollar relative to the Australian dollar, before fees and expenses. For example, if the US$ goes up 10% against the A$ (i.e. the A$ falls in value) the ETF is designed to go up 10% too.

Mgmt Costs 0.45% p.a. (any interest received is offset against this)
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