Hi Ian,
A 5c divvy would have been more reasonable I think but its quite possible they are out on the prowl and need the capital.Remember the divvy means more to the Docs than nearly anyone else.
As for the share price some have had enough of the long journey and are cashing out but to my mind now is the time to hold tight or even buy Sales were never going to skyrocket until the CDC recs.

Ive still got SRX to report I hope their result is better received.

c.c.c

Hi Charge,
Thanks for the comments.
I agree with you that now is the time to hold or even build. But I don't think the total picture is that simple. I make an uneducated guess along the following lines.
CST is now well over a decade long story
I guess the long term investors that were attracted to it from those days and onwards were somewhat mature aged, so they are now becoming a little on the 'ripe' side. In fact, she who must be obeyed often accuses me of smelling like mouldy cheese. I don't see the long time supporter base being full of bright young saplings.
They did their time supporting CST (you get less for manslaughter) and are now reaching that time in life when the income and reward anticipated is expected. That is why they got into such a long term investment those many years ago.
I am sure 20 something’s like bubble gummer Martin and 30 something’s hopefully like your good self are not in that category but I suspect many are.
Are there huge numbers of CST holders. No there are not.
Are there long termers who have been steadily accruing and therefore may be holding upwards towards 400c. Yes there are.
Did they experience opportunity loss all those years. For sure they did.
Is it possible they will now become weary of their involvement because even when the chance is presented for the company to provide encouragement it is dismissed.
Now if they start dumping where is the broad supporter base to catch the opportunity. That is my concern.
Down 7~8% today and could be worse to come. And my view is this occurred unnecessarily and the good doctors are in the frame for it. By the way, it’s worth reminding ourselves what their shares cost.
The existing war chest is adequate and the mgmnt knows better than any of us that the future of CST will look after itself with increasing ease. So I don't buy the argument that super caution is required on this occasion. Rather than considering 5c would be more reasonable, my view is 5c was the minimum required (assuming the results were OK) to cement holder support.

Don't get me wrong. I am selling nothing. I believe we have reached the 'tipping point' and a nuclear bomb could not stop CST now. But I think on this occasion CST's mgmnt has failed its supporters and we are seeing the impact of that today. They certainly appear not to have been educated at the Dr Bernado Uni of Business Studies. Fortunately it’s not as bad as I had feared but it’s not over yet and I find it disappointing.
CST has now cemented the attitude that its investors are unreasonable and expect too much. Comment along those lines came from earlier AGM's and now it's been reinforced. I fear many will find that disappointing and will be wearying. And if Martins suggestion of new product releases bears fruit (and I believe it will) or the war chest is used for acquisition, will the non reward formula get extended because of that?. If that thought starts permeating minds it’s this occasion that will be raising it.

Anyway, good luck to all of us and I hope my fears prove unfounded.
And good luck with SRX.
cheers
Ian

Hi Ian,

You may well be right that a higher dividend would have stopped some of the selling and may have given some support to the share price but the total value of todays trades was less than $200,000 (79,660 shares) and the total value of trades for the three days since the end of year report came out would have been $600,000 or perhaps less (or at $2.50 a share about 240,000 shares). while the turnover is higher than recent averages it is hardly a mass sell off so I'm not convinced that a 5 cent or more dividend would have made anything other than a minor contribution to holding up the share price.

My belief, and it is only that, is that CST will grow the amount of cash it sits on rather than paying it all out as dividends, I know it has been said and no doubt will be said again that $20m is enough cash to hold but as the company grows the opportunities that present themselves will also grow, it is a natural progression. (Just as when I reach 30 I'll give up bubble gum for something more mature like spearmint chewing gum With growth rates of 35% there is plenty of leeway for dividends to grow in line with profit and for cash to amass.

Everyone got the time it would take wrong, the directors, institutional investors, private investors and me but that is one of the risks involved, fortunately all I and anyone else who hasn't sold has lost is the so called 'opportunity cost' i.e I could have put my money somewhere else and made a better return which is true if I could find somewhere that would give me a better return. I not at all sure that I could have done.

The stock market is an extremely difficult place to make money from by trading, I don't care what anyone says, most invariably end up losing money. To make money on the stock market takes hard work and time and this typing tortoise has learnt that. CST represents my hard work, money and time and I am completely comfortable with it, we all want more NOW but sometimes we just have to wait, sometimes the first class train is a slow train coming.

I'm beginning to sound like a guru, I must have been in Byron too long...

Martin

Martin,
Well yes, I am pleased the action today is little more than should be expected on a down day for the general market, and you are right to say the total volumes from divi announcement are not large. So I don't think its long termers that are quitting so I am breathing easier about that.
The time its taken to reach this point is not a concern to me, other than for the reason I mentoned earlier, which is I am of the view that long-termers are going to be hearder to encourage to stay on board the longer the reward drought continues. You can see what a small movement in stock over the last couple of days can do to the sp - which in turn is capable of generating broader panic. Fortunately it seems not to be excessive this time but It is the issue that concerns me. And since (for today at least) CST is a 1 product company, the mngmt need to be cognisant of it also.
Other than that, as I have said many times, I have every confidence in the future (timing apart) and I am also think we have arrived at the general vacinity of the much touted tipping point.
cheers
Ian

Most of the selling was before the result, you can form your own view on that.

c.c.c

I see Forrest is getting roasted over on HC.I think what their really trying to say is FG get a life.

c.c.c

Hi charge,

I hardly ever go there as I can't stand the rough and tumble, as you'd know by now I'm far too sensitive for that but I'm quite enamoured with 'kist' she sounds like my kind of woman, I may soon take up poetry. Kist if you're reading this you're welcome here anytime...and don't forget the handcuffs

As for the criticisms of Forrest Gump I think they are unfair, his output is prolific, well researched and free. No where does it say you have to agree or act upon the information provided, in the particular case in question the reader is actively encouraged to input their own data rather than rely on the given examples. What do his critics want, a money back guarantee? Lol it's the stock market not a 2am infomercial for a set of steak knives!

As D'lids (a poster elsewhere) said "Seriously, some people just don't do enough (any?) work..."

Martin

Hi Charge,

Even if it's not always obvious, we do appreciate and enjoy your input to this forum. But there is another aspect which you may care to consider. It is that of credibility. If we can step back for a moment, and look at the situation from the perspective of someone who is not involved on either side of an argument, consider how such a person is likely to make an assessment of the credibility, and therefore the value, of two competing arguments.

If, on the one side there is a clearly defined set of assumptions, accompanied by detailed, verifiable data, resulting in a logically supportable conclusion, while on the other side there is no statement of assumptions, no reference to data, and, indeed, nothing more than a sweeping condemnation of the other view, which is more likely to be believed? Forrest has taken the time to put together a soundly argued case.

No amount of personal attack is going to solve this problem. The only thing that will beat a good, logical argument is a better logical argument. Top-of-the-head statements just do not cut it. By all means, disagree with Forrest - I suspect that he welcomes serious discussion. But if you want people to listen to what you have to say, and not dismiss your words as inconsequential, then there really is a need to match assumptions with alternative assumptions (and justify them), and provide a case which demonstrates a comparable level of thought and analysis.

Cheers, Islay

I dont consider Commsecs best client credible at all.

Still think $2.70 is good value Iam tipping she will rise from the dead back to that level sooner than later.

Time for the directors to show some faith as well.No one has made more money from our investment than Rothel and Radford.sell $3.20 buy at $2.50 odd

c.c.c

What is the meaning of the new test


"News of the new MTB/RIF test has sent the share price of the producer soaring

Up $1.35, or 8.6 percent, to $17.12 in afternoon trading.
Rumours of "blue sky" abound

Jefferies & Co. analyst Bruce Cranna said the company could get a big boost if the World Health Organization recommends the test to its 193 member states.
But is the hype warranted?
"

This new test is for active TB. From all accounts it does sound very promising both in identifying active TB and also identifying if the patient shows signs of resistance to the most common antibiotics used to treat active TB.

QFT of course is for the detection of latent TB however if this new test is proven and in wide use my impression is that the combination of this test for active TB and QFT for latent TB could very well mean that at long last TB could be controlled worldwide.

Pretty good explanation from a very knowledgeable guy at:-

http://quantiferon.blogspot.com/

machia
Thank you. I thought as much.
Gee the market for the past three years has been so volatile. Patience, buy and hold and nerves have been sorely tested.
It looks like the market is shark infested territory.
Anyone that has survived the previous three years intact, should look to the future with less volatility.
If the travail of the market was not enough, Forrest has had to endure some personal attacks. Some say that he was personally attacking in his posts ...........I have not seen them.
But what I have seen is his data sheets. There was a great amount of time given to originating and maintaining these. All I have to say is a BIG THANK YOU for these.
I find enthusiasm a great and enobling trait and an all to rare trait. So again thank you.
As for the SP. It is to hoped that the business plan will produce the sales that tips the scales. And if it does not, we are to blame ourselves for our investment decisions. It is a sign of insecurity to blame others; and with this weakness the market is not the place to be.
IT IS TRYING TO CAST US OFF.