I was searching through the archives for CST posts and came across the quote below and felt,as a CST holder,I had to point out a couple of things.CSTs product,QuantiferonTB, is NOT aimed at the Third World mainly because their biggest problem is ACTIVE TB as opposed to LATENT TB.When a person has active TB the disease is infectious and relatively easy to diagnose/detect.Latent TB on the other hand is quite a different story being very difficult to detect.Cellestis with their second generation product,QFTB-Gold,have the answer to this difficulty.

As to CST , it is a thoroughly different game because I have never thought they had a market that could afford the kit ( the third world ) and that which can afford it , basically has very miniscule problem ...cheers eG

Regarding 'the very miniscule problem' in the quote.The US conducts around 15 million tests each year,Japan at least as many and quite possibly a lot more(Cellestis have said 25 million) and that's just the US and Japan.I haven't got any figures for Europe but I think it would be reasonable to assume say 10 million which adds up to a rather large potential market.To these figures you could add other affluent Asian countries say S.Korea,Taiwan and other western countries such as Australia,Canada,NZ.

Sorry to rave on but I felt I had to point this out.Hope you don't take offence eG as I enjoy reading your posts.

Martin

Why would I take offence , Martin ?
Thank u so much for your explanation of the difference between Active and latent TB .I did not know that fact .
I wish u and Cellestis a great deal of success .
This is stock for believers ( at this stage ) but one needs tons of and patience I think most investors have 1or 2 stocks of this "belief" concept , in their portfolio ...cheers eG

G'day Martin and eG.

I recall seeing a lot of TB in the news recently, and doing a google news search (http://news.google.com/news?hl=en&edition=us&q=tuberculosis&btnG=Search+News),
reveals there's a lot of it around. Today there are students testing positive in Baltimore, and other big recent stories involve cases in Russia, India and the US, as well as Africa. A new strain of drug-resistant TB seems to be a big concern.

I haven't heard of CST before, but thanks to you bringing them to my attention, I'm planning on having a look. What impact do you think this new drug-resistant strain will have on the stock?

Bergholt.

Hi eG,I'm glad you don't mind a debate.

I wouldn't call myself a believer,with CST I'm an investor. I realise that a lot of people jump on the bandwagon when it comes to bio and tech stocks but I'm not one of them,this is the only stock of it's type that I hold in quantity.It's just that when I look into all the probabilities regarding CST the odds are stacked in my favour.It's not as if they are developing a product,the product is in its final stages of approval in US and Japan and is already approved and on sale in Europe.It is highly unlikely that the numerous worldwide tests carried out on thousands of individuals will suddenly be proved to be wrong.QFTB has already been approved in the US,QFTB-Gold is a supplementary application lodged in December.The FDA has said the application will be processed within 180days.

The product it will replace is tolerated in the medical community only because there is NO alternative.It is common knowledge that the current 100+year test is unreliable and difficult to interpret.

In Japan they have great trouble detecting latent TB because most people have been TB vaccinated(BCG) and although the potentcy of the vaccine dimishes it still invalidates the current skin test.QuantiferonTB-Gold is unaffected by a BCG vaccination. Japan needs and wants this test,The Research Institute of Tuberculosis in Japan are already, in anticipation of imminent approval,planning training in labs that will be conducting the test.

I don't see this as a short term trading stock and I'm happy to wait for a return in the not too distant future

Martin

Hi Bergholt,

Multi drug resistant tuberculosis(MDRTB) could become a real problem,some would say it already is.Many AIDS patients develop TB so it stands to reason that it would be better to test early on for LTB before it becomes active when time may be at a premium.

So in answer to your question my opinion would be that it would have a positive impact but to be fair the main testing market is already there without MDRTB so it may not be a significant impact.

Re your comments about Russia India US and India.It is vitally important that you don't confuse Latent TB(LTB) with the active disease.The Third World has a massive TB problem(active and latent) but the active disease has to be tackled first in these areas.It could decades before the latent disease is addressed in the Third World.India may prove to have a market
for QFTB-Gold but as I pointed out earlier the main markets on the horizon at the moment are the developed world.

Martin

Thought I'd post this to demontrate what I pointed out in a earlier post.It's taken from the US Centre for Disease Control site it's a little dated (2001) but shows the feeling towards the outdated current test that QFTB-Gold will replace

The Purified Protein Derivative Test
An active surveillance program must rely on the time-honored tuberculin PPD test, which is difficult to place, read, and interpret. In addition, the sensitivity and specificity of the 19th century test are far lower than those of other modern diagnostic tests. Among criticisms of the proposed Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) standard (10), perhaps the most compelling is the reliance of a $250 million program on the PPD test.

The Booster Phenomenon
The booster phenomenon confounds the interpretation of the PPD test, complicating TB control programs

QFTB-Gold has no booster effect.

Martin

Martin
I don't really wish tp debate this stock because you are a large parcel holder , so I understand , and we do not hold it .

But I can give some financial facts to back up the "believer" concept .

1. CST has had the Australian approval for sometime , a fact that did not result in substential revenues: Revenue from Sales or services $393000 for FY03 and $253000 for FY02 . The FY03 sales amounted to less than ONE HALF CENT per share . Indeed sales have increased to $534000 during H1FY04 but still negligible .
I would ask the directors why the test has not taken off in Australia ?

2. The company has been cash-burning modestly in recent times . It had $5.78m in cash at the end of second Q and during which it burned $546000 . This is not a bad pace gor such a company . It should last at a constant pace another year .

3. The company is valued by the market price between $96 to $140 millions ( depends on if one takes the escrowed stock in consideration ) and to justify from FA LT aspect this price , CST will have to generate very high Revenue and profits .

That's why I said it is a believers stock ...all the best eG

Interesting observation egilmore. I have been a holder since the origional float. The company keeps the shareholders and the market well informed about its development and in no way do the directors overstate the trials and tribulations of getting a product accepted by the market. They have had a sales office in the USA since last year, soon after obtaining FDA approval. As far as I am aware no real progress has been made in getting substantial orders from the military or the public health authorities. These are the bodies that do most of the testing for latent TB. I wonder if it is a question of cost?. Does anyone know the cost of the QuantiFERON-TB test as compared with the Mantoux test? I suspect there is a substantial difference.

Hi again eG,

Don't feel obliged to debate CST with me I'm happy to put my thoughts down here,so long as no one complains,it helps to clarify my overview of the company.Maybe you'll put your head around the door for a look now and then.

You're right about the disappointing sales but this was due to the first generation product being only marginally better that the TST,QFT-Gold is not even comparable with TST it is so much better.I gave a lengthy detailed reply regarding this vast improvement this last night only to find that I lost it all due to being timed out. If anyone is interested I'd be happy(not really the right word) to go over it again.

I'll keep it short as I don't want to lose it all again.

Martin

Geoff,

As far as I know the the cost of the QFT-Gold test kit has not been released.The QFTB test kit was reportedly sold for $10.However if you read the article below from SFGate.com(San Francisco Chronicle) it will give you some information on the cost

Extract:

Unfortunately, old TB detection practices that have become ingrained make it extremely difficult to accurately identify those with latent TB. Still in widespread use today, the tuberculin skin test (TST or Mantoux) was developed in 1890 -- the decade that saw the invention of the gas-powered automobile - - and has a high rate of false-positive and false-negative results. In addition, interpretation of the TST is highly subjective, not reproducible and requires two patient visits -- one to take the test and another to have the results interpreted. On average, more than 30 percent of those tested do not return for the results. The U.S. Institute of Medicine has regarded the failings of the TST for TB infection as the single largest problem for TB control in the United States.

With one-third of the world's population infected with latent TB and multi-drug-resistant TB rising at alarming rates (300,000 new cases estimated by the World Health Organization for last year alone), it is in the interest of every country to support rapid scale-up of TB control. It is time to put the TST to bed and begin using accurate TB tests, such as a simple blood test under review with the FDA[this is QFT-Gold] that is more accurate and reliable for detecting TB.

In addition to its integral role in the control and spread of TB, a simple, one-step blood test should yield dramatic cost savings in terms of medical staff time and the elimination of common false-positive results, the latter involving costly follow-up testing and unnecessary TB therapy. For hospitals and health departments, such a test would relieve the huge administrative and cost burden associated with maintaining TB testing compliance.

Old habits may die hard, but allowing people to die is even harder. There is no good reason not to relinquish the TST to history.


Martin

Martin
I can relate to your frustration re losing all your post due to time out .
Make a habit : When you finish typing the long post COPY it so you could PASTE it if timed out .
cheers eG

Thanks eG,

Wish I'd known that last night!

Martin