great article Disco Stu,
was sorta bored, got enthralled, my condensensed extract version follows
plus also this positive economic article for todays bears
http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=v ... =8&id=1567
since the end of the Cold War in 1991 and particularly under the administration of George W Bush, the United States has been doing everything in its power to encourage and even accelerate Japanese rearmament
Can the United States and Japan, today's versions of rich, established powers, adjust to the re-emergence of China
The truly significant trade development of 2004 was the EU's emergence as China's biggest economic partner, suggesting the possibility of a Sino-European cooperative bloc
China's trade with Europe in 2004 was worth $177.2 billion, with the United States $169.6 billion, and with Japan $167.8 billion.
Most important, China's external debt is relatively small and easily covered by its reserves; whereas both the US and Japan are approximately $7 trillion in the red, which is worse for Japan, with less than half the US population and economic clout
Ironically, part of Japan's debt is a product of its efforts to help prop up America's global imperial stance. For example, in the period since the end of the Cold War, Japan has subsidized America's military bases in Japan to the staggering tune of approximately $70 billion. Refusing to pay for its profligate consumption patterns and military expenditures through taxes on its own citizens, the United States is financing these outlays by going into debt to Japan, China, Taiwan, South Korea, Hong Kong and India. This situation has become increasingly unstable as the US requires capital imports of at least $2 billion per day to pay for its governmental expenditures. Any decision by East Asian central banks to move significant parts of their foreign-exchange reserves out of the US dollar and into the euro or other currencies to protect themselves from dollar depreciation would produce the mother of all financial crises.
Japan still possesses the world's largest foreign-exchange reserves, which at the end of January stood at around $841 billion. But China sits on a $609.9 billion pile of dollars (as of the end of 2004)
"We see the special relationship between the United States and Great Britain as a model for the [US-Japan] alliance."
The Bush administration is seeking, among other things, an end to Japan's ban on the export of military technology, since it wants Japanese engineers to help solve some of the technical problems of its so-far-failing Star Wars system
What Japan currently lacks are the platforms (such as submarines) for a secure retaliatory force in order to dissuade a nuclear adversary from launching a preemptive first strike. (assuming it builds nukes, has the means)
Taiwan might try to seek a status somewhat like that of French Canada - a kind of looser version of a Chinese Quebec under nominal central government control but maintaining separate institutions, laws and customs.
The mainland would be so relieved by this solution it would probably accept it, particularly if it could be achieved before the 2008 Beijing Olympics
By the summer of 2004, Bush strategists, distracted as they were by Iraq, again became alarmed over China's growing power and its potential to challenge US hegemony in East Asia.
On February 19 in Washington, it signed a new military agreement with Japan. For the first time, Japan joined the US administration in identifying security in the Taiwan Strait as a "common strategic objective". Nothing could have been more alarming to China's leaders than the revelation that Japan had decisively ended six decades of official pacifism by claiming a right to intervene in the Taiwan Strait.
t is possible that, in the years to come, Taiwan itself may recede in importance to be replaced by even more direct Sino-Japanese confrontations
nd he proposed joint Sino-Japanese exploration of possible oil resources in the offshore seas that both sides claim. All such gestures were ignored by Koizumi,
during World War II the Japanese killed approximately 23 million Chinese throughout East Asia
Matters came to a head in November at two important summit meetings: an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) gathering in Santiago, followed immediately by an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
Koizumi went out of his way to insult Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in Vientiane. He said to Premier Wen, "It's about time for [China's] graduation"
On November 10, the Japanese navy discovered a Chinese nuclear submarine in Japanese territorial waters near Okinawa. Although the Chinese apologized and called the sub's intrusion a "mistake"
Over time this downward spiral in relations will probably prove damaging to the interests of both the United States and Japan, but particularly to those of Japan. China is unlikely to retaliate directly
Nearly 70,000 Chinese students now study at Japanese universities, compared with 65,000 at US academic institutions. These close and lucrative relations are at risk if the US and Japan pursue their militarization of the region.
French foreign-policy think-tanks have long promoted the goal of 'multipolarity' in a post-Cold War world, ie, the preference for many different, competing power centers rather than the 'unipolarity' of the US as a single hyperpower. Multipolarity is no longer simply a strategic goal. It is an emerging reality."
Ninety-eight percent of Japan's imports from Iran are oil.) On February 18, 2004, a consortium of Japanese companies and the Iranian government signed a memorandum of agreement to develop jointly Iran's Azadegan oilfield, one of the world's largest, in a project worth $2.8 billion. The US has opposed Japan's support for Iran, causing Congressman Brad Sherman (Democrat, California) to charge that Bush had been bribed into accepting the Japanese-Iranian deal by Koizumi's dispatch of 550 Japanese troops to Iraq, adding a veneer of international support for the US war there.
But the long-standing Iranian-Japanese alignment began to change in late 2004. On October 28, China's oil major, the Sinopec Group, signed an agreement with Iran worth between $70 billion and $100 billion to develop the giant Yadavaran natural-gas field. China agreed to buy 250 million tons of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Iran over 25 years. It is the largest deal Iran has signed with a foreign country since 1996 and will include several other benefits, including China's assistance in building numerous ships to deliver the LNG to Chinese ports. Iran also committed itself to exporting 150,000 barrels of crude oil per day to China for 25 years at market prices.
The US has also charged China with selling nuclear and missile technology to Iran.
The European Union is China's largest trading partner and China is the EU's second-largest trading partner (after the United States
Back in 1989, to protest the suppression of pro-democracy demonstrators in Beijing's Tiananmen Square, the EU imposed a ban on military sales to China. The only other countries so treated are true international pariahs such as Myanmar, Sudan and Zimbabwe
On a visit to Beijing in October, he said that China and France share "a common vision of the world" and that lifting the embargo will "mark a significant milestone: a moment when Europe had to make a choice between the strategic interests of America and China - and chose China".
Arthur Lauder, a professor of international relations at the University of Pennsylvania, concurred. He said the Chinese military "is the only one being developed anywhere in the world today that is specifically configured to fight the United States
The Japanese government, of course, backs the US position that China constitutes a military threat to the entire region. Interestingly enough, however, the Australian government of Prime Minister John Howard, a loyal ally of the United States when it comes to Iraq, has decided to defy Bush on the issue of lifting the European arms embargo. Australia places a high premium on good relations with China and is hoping to negotiate a free-trade agreement between the two countries. Canberra has therefore decided to support the EU in lifting the 15-year-old embargo. Chirac and German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder both say, "It will happen."
China is openly courting many Latin American countries regardless of what Washington thinks.
In the weeks that followed, China signed important investment and trade agreements with Argentina, Venezuela, Bolivia, Chile and Cuba. Of particular interest, in December, President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela visited China and agreed to give it wide-ranging access to his country's oil reserves. Venezuela is the world's fifth-largest oil exporter and normally sells about 60% of its output to the United States, but under the new agreements China will be allowed to operate 15 mature oilfields in eastern Venezuela. China will invest about $350 million to extract oil and another $60 million in natural-gas wells.
Last December, the ASEAN countries and China also agreed to create a free-trade zone among themselves by 2010.
China is the primary moving force behind these efforts. According to Funabashi, China's leadership plans to use the country's explosive economic growth and its ever more powerful links to regional trading partners to marginalize the United States and isolate Japan in East Asia.
Why should China's emergence as a rich, successful country be to the disadvantage of either Japan or the United States? History teaches us that the least intelligent response to this development would be to try to stop it through military force. As a Hong Kong wisecrack has it, China has just had a couple of bad centuries and now it's back