sort of sensible article in the Australian
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/busines ... 5881498210""... Market timing may be particularly risky in the prevailing highly volatile market, being buffeted by Europe's sovereign debt crisis, debate over the resource super-profits tax and talk of a possible double-dip recession overseas. In practice, few professional investment managers, let alone personal investors, consistently succeed in timing the market. Most investors who attempt it have an almost uncanny knack of selling after share prices have fallen and buying after prices have recovered. Market timing, as opposed to a strategy of investing for the long term, is almost a certain way to lose money.
Doug Turek, managing director of Melbourne financial planning firm Professional Wealth, says ETFs tracking a chosen index are usually most appropriately used by personal investors to provide the long-held core of their equity portfolios. He believes any heavy trading generally should be limited to a satellite of perhaps higher risk, directly held shares or actively managed funds outside the core portfolio. Turek says "trigger-happy investors" who trade frequently tend to lose money for their efforts from a combination of buying and selling at the wrong time, taxation and transaction costs. "It is a losing-sum game, " he says,
Numerous studies highlight the high risk of market timing. Turek points to, as an example, the regularly updated study Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behaviour, compiled by researchers for Dalbar, in the US. The research covered investor behaviour and their returns through 17 years. "This study found that investors in US equity funds on average made the wrong timing decisions and managed to underperform the funds they were buying by a substantial margin," Turek says. "The investors' main problem [as emphasised in the Dalbar study] is that they were performance chasers," he adds, and they "stampeded for the door" when returns fell. Dalbar researchers concluded this usually meant investors "buy high and sell low".....
and there is more, on StateStreet and ETFs at -
streettracks-listed-funds-stw-slf-sfy-3730.html