My computer can tell me the future

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My computer can tell me the future

Postby Judd » Sat Sep 20, 2008 8:25 am

Aside from the truisms in this snipet which I have copied today, why do I feel that my computer can tell me the future? My God, I just know I'm going to be fabulously rich as a result.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 02150.html

Mistakes Other Investors Made So You Don't Have To

By Whitney Tilson and John Heins
Kiplinger's Personal Finance
Sunday, September 21, 2008; Page F03

Warren E. Buffett frequently reminds people: "It's better to learn from other people's mistakes as much as possible." In that spirit, here are five traps that can snare even conscientious investors:

1. The game has changed. There's a fine line between opportunity and trouble when a once-strong business goes into decline, as investors in newspapers have learned in recent years.

2. High and rising debt. Value investors are naturally drawn to companies in trouble -- that's what makes stocks cheap if the difficulties prove to be temporary. But too much debt can ruin even the best-planned turnaround.

3. Consumer fads. When investors extrapolate far into the future what are highly likely to be impossible-to-maintain growth levels, trouble follows. Crocs is a prime recent example.

4. Serial acquirers or mega-acquisitions. Given the research showing that a significant majority of acquisitions destroy value for the buyers, it's remarkable how frequently investors get excited about roll-up stories or big acquisitions.
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5. Aggressive accounting. The gray areas in generally accepted accounting principles in the United States give executives considerable leeway in how aggressively or conservatively they represent company operations. When a company's accounting treatment creates more questions than answers, something is usually wrong.
Regards
Judd
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Re: My computer can tell me the future

Postby G » Sun Sep 21, 2008 8:49 pm

Funny, but sometimes I feel the same way.
I draw pictures and some of them play out in real life.
Just in case, I determine point where my little concoction is wrong and this is what I call trading plan.

Since books can be cooked to show any picture, chart seems to give some warning signs, while all fundamentals appear OK.

Enough of this blatant feathers fluffing :oops:
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Re: My computer can tell me the future

Postby stonelover » Sun Jan 04, 2009 12:04 pm

Hi Judd,

your post is not really 'trivia' in my mind.

5. Aggressive accounting. The gray areas in generally accepted accounting principles in the United States give executives considerable leeway in how aggressively or conservatively they represent company operations. When a company's accounting treatment creates more questions than answers, something is usually wrong.


This aspect has bugged me for a long time and it impacts on FA and this can impact on CVGI calcs.
Combine your item 5 with the Time Lag in printing/releasing the info and the problem grows.
There could be months between in-house calcs and Public release and precise timing has become an issue
for the investment market where clocks are being adjusted to pick up a nanosecond.

With all these gray to black areas in FA, it feels safer to pick the future movements with G's prognostications.
I wish G would post more.
Just a view from the Lounge Chair nervously nibbling crisps inside an ever increasing cloud of crumbs
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