NEW INVESTOR GUIDE To CGVI Fundamental Analysis

NEW INVESTOR GUIDE To CGVI Fundamental Analysis

Postby Kan_Guru » Wed Mar 31, 2004 9:06 am

Hopstar and New2waix suggested a new starter kit for those new to investing. I have lifted this from another thread but the Hopstar or New2waix suggestion for an easy link to this subject CGVI needs to be held in the reference section. Hope someone will do similar grouping of Pedro's contributions.

Post from Unanswered thread. Cheers

It can't get much simpler than the entry below. And if you follow the good guides therein stated you will remove much of the dross that can come from just using the CGVI calcluation value only.

I would recommend that you print "the reports" obtained from the links below. Cheers

SEND AN EMAIL COPY OF THIS POST TO ANYONE YOU KNOW WHO IS HAVING PROBLEMS WITH THE FUNDAMENTALS OF SHARE INVESTMENT.

Presentation Download site of CGVI Concept

http://www.lainie.com.au/sharesguru/index.html

Background FORBES MAGAZINE. A Shares Filter.

http://www.sharesguru.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=43

The Aussie Innovation CCVI Then CGVI.

http://www.sharesguru.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=26

Calculating Relative Share Prices at OPT BUY , ACC TO & Hold Too levels
( within the following thread )

http://www.sharesguru.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1975

Professors Calculation of an Annual Average return% Next Five Years

http://www.sharesguru.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=90

MARGIN OF SAFETY.

http://www.sharesguru.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=142

MUTT'S VARIATION & Very Good Choices VGC

http://www.sharesguru.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=75

Further CGVI Explanations.

http://www.sharesguru.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=28

I would not worry too much about this CGVI concept, As Buffett says most people would rather waffle on at a cocktail party about the current hot darlings of the stock market than spend some time in thoughtful contemplation on what investing is really about, ( or words to that effect ). The Aussie innovation was produced as an easy intro for those with no knowledge of investing. So HOPSTAR & Newaix2 there is no problem to asking for help, we have all had to do that on this forum and it's predecessor, and gained very profitably from it. It is just that sometimes we are otherwise occupied and we are unable to respond. But someone will always take up the baton. Your turn soon.

The program is no longer distributed but the information to develop into your own spreadsheet is mainly available in the REFERENCE Thread.
Last edited by Kan_Guru on Tue Sep 28, 2004 7:10 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Thanks

Postby Hopstar » Wed Mar 31, 2004 1:04 pm

Thanks Kan_Guru. Much appreciated!

When you get some time could you possibly provide a thumbnail outline of your investing philosophy/history ie. Your selection methodology, favourite sectors/industries, successful share picks/duds and reasons why you chose those shares etc. Major mistakes you've made, and major things you've learned. Do you follow the 12 tenets outlined in The Essental Buffett.

Your insight, and those of other long term investors, would be invaluable to us newbies.

Thanks

Hopstar
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Postby new2waix » Thu Apr 01, 2004 4:59 pm

Cheers KG!!!

Thanks for creating this great starting point for us amateur funnymentalist analysts! :lol:

It's good to read up on the origin of all these effective tools.

I hope all the lurkers and beginners can benefit from the generousity and helpfulness of this forum. And, hope that in due course I can contribute back to the forum.


:wink:


..
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Presentation Of CGVI

Postby Kan_Guru » Tue Aug 03, 2004 8:22 am

Lainie has provided a means of downloading the presentation from the following address

http://www.lainie.com.au/sharesguru/index.html

If you dont have PowerPoint you can click thru the presentation but if you do have powerpoint you can save the download file and reload into PP then get the full screen display of Presentation. Many Thanks Lainie. Cheers

This should round out information on this concept. Cheers
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CGVI

Postby messner » Mon Sep 27, 2004 12:59 pm

sorry to dredge up this old topic.

just a question on CGVI. am i right in assuming you cant use it for exploration companies?

secondly. what would a CGVI % of 43 mean. it seems high. would it indicate that buying at the current price may be worthwhile (after further research)?

thanks

steve
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Use Of CGVI For Any Company

Postby Kan_Guru » Mon Sep 27, 2004 4:47 pm

Hi Steve; You can do a CGVI study on any company that has data for DPSc $NTA EPSc. Jubilee Mines can be calculated and at times I have calculated for Woodside WPL. Some exploration companies do not have a Net Tangible assets figure, and in these cases the best you could do would be to roughly estimate what the NTA$ might be, but in this case it would only be a rough guide.

If you post the data you used to get a CGVI of 43 I could post the full study for you.

Have you looked at the CGVI PowerPoint Presentation available from Lainie's site as mentioned in posts above. It gives a list of what each CGVI value level stands for. And it gives the formulae to turn that CGVI value into an Optimum Buy Price. But 43 usually means a much closer look seems worthwhile for that one. Cheers
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CGVI 43

Postby messner » Mon Sep 27, 2004 5:12 pm

hi Kan_guru. thanks for your post. i have looked at the links you posted above including the power point presentation and have found them very usuful.

a few companies i have looked at have negative cash flow so the CGVI value would indicate a negative value whereas the companies prospects seem to be ok.

as for the CGVI 43 value i could well have got it wrong. not sure what info you need but here some of the finacials

the info i used was this:
Share Price $1.70
esp 29.6 cents,
dps 0,
Book value per share $1.14.

P/E = 5.01
P/B = 1.49
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CGVI & REQUIRED Data

Postby Kan_Guru » Mon Sep 27, 2004 8:07 pm

One of the other essentials for a good CGVI prospect is that the selected share should be within cooee of the FORBES Requirements, ( also on the forum link above ) and one of these requirements is a growing profitability over at least four years. The second point is that CGVI or it's American roots was formed for safe investments for "Pension, Endowment and Family Trust Money".
Some of the shares that some forumites have attached to the CGVI concept make me shudder. When I strike a company with No Dividend Payout I look no further, as the calculation will tend to be suspect but only from a CGVI point of view. This does not mean the selection is no good but that in comparison to other available prospects, it's selection could possibly be more speculative. No dividend payout is not necessarily a bad thing for I believe that "Buffett's" Berkshire Hathaway has only ever paid a dividend once in its life, and one could hardly say that company is no good.
So it is true that the calculation would come out at 43.nn but because of the No Dividend my program has been programmed to drop the final printout and recommendation.
Model recent CGVI Type companies are SIMS GROUP SMS, BKW, SOL, BSL, TSE, COF and that is more than enough for my final selection process. Even in these cases I always proposed that SOL would eventually settle at about the same price as BKW for they each own about 50% of each others shares. I have been badly wrong here, for although SOL has continued to rise very nicely in price, BKW has continued to also rise dramatically. There is still much to uncover and learn; Wish I had bought both.
On the other hand SDI in CGVI calculations functions like a real mystery, one of which I wish I could unfathom, its CGVI = 35.59, its study recommendation is *SPCL* yet because of data imbalance the PROB/KELLY figures say No Go. Looking back at SDI's historical data records it has always had this imbalance, its CGVI was always great, and its share price continued to surge. There is more work to do on the "PURE Growth Company" and what its data is telling us. Under EG urgings it will be interesting to watch the coming months of both COF & SDI. Cheers
Last edited by Kan_Guru on Tue Sep 28, 2004 8:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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CGVI

Postby messner » Tue Sep 28, 2004 8:48 am

ok that makes more sense now. ill apply it to those sort of companies. thanks very much for you help. much appreciated. my learning curve is steep!.

steve

the company for those figures was Tap Oil
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SOL or the Wizards of Oz

Postby egilmore » Wed Sep 29, 2004 7:55 pm

What a clever smart shrewd managers . My hat !
Look one year crop :
Brickworks twisted our arms and bought Bristile for a real bargain , ended up in
• acquisition by Brickworks Limited (49.8 per cent owned by WHSP) of Bristile Limited,contributing to a significant profit lift for the year to June, with contribution to WHSP profit,including non-regular items, increasing to $60.7 million ($22.3 million last year)



NHC spinning off integrated coal group, New Hope Corporation (63.4 per cent owned) to list on the ASX in 2003, with it lifting profit for the year to July and its contribution to WHSP profit after nonregular
items rising 49.6 per cent to $38 million


establishment of Souls Funds Management (63.6 per cent owned), by acquiring a business with
$20 million under management and assisting it to grow to $234 million by year’s end
• growing deal flow for merchant banking operation, (Pitt Capital Partners 50 per cent owned),
with it opening offices in Adelaide and Hong Kong and lifting profit 250 per cent to $1.7 million
• Australian Pharmaceutical Industries (23.2 per cent owned) deciding to build a new
manufacturing facility and, after balance date, making an acquisition of New Price Retail to drive
a fast track retail-led strategy
• further expansion in food, with Clover Corporation (28.5 per cent owned) progressing with new
Omega3 DHA and soy products and Keith Harris & Co (58.7 per cent owned) expanding bakery
operations through a Western Australian acquisition


SOT sale by WHSP of its former wholly owned television station to SP Telecommunications (44.5 per
cent owned) to create SP Telemedia, Australia’s first converged telecommunications and media business


All above have produced extra $74.4m NPAT as non recurring profit . Normalised profit was $81.5m V $78.7m

EPS 65c V 37c pcp but includes a huge one off as mentioned above .
Scratch your heads KAN GURU to calculate a proper CGVI and future earnings ratios ...we don't hold SOL cheers eG
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Mystery for everyone but BRIERLEY

Postby Kan_Guru » Thu Sep 30, 2004 7:04 am

I think Mr Brierley getting a grip on Brickworks, really opened a hornets nest, with the resultant release of value for the true believers. There is an old "Management" saying that if you have someone firmly held by the NUTS ( not sure if that is almonds, macadamia or cashews ), their Hearts and minds (and obviously price) will follow. Think of the poor NRMA director who continually castigated the NRMA Board for holding onto SOUL Pattinson shares at $24 for year after year after year. He just did not understand VALUE, nor how to calculate it; and we saw the results of his other escapades in that arena.
I was first introduced by a Mentor, to Brickworks many years ago, 1950 or thereabouts and even then they were giving out bonus issues on a regular basis.
Now after the 10 for one splits last financial year, of both Brickworks and SOUL the respective equivalent value of those pre split old shares are BKW, $113.00 and SOL $92.30 and obviously more yet to come. Just hope NRMA held onto those shares like grim death. Thanks Mr Brierley, he really is an old Fox and one of the best in forcing market value up to its true or "Intrinsic Value". It is well worth reading the Ron Brierley book!.
I had long believed and stated on this forum, that Soul Pattinson was the nearest equivalent in Australia to BUFFETT"s Berkshire Hathaway, except SOL & Brickworks have always paid great dividends as well. Oh What a Feeling!!.
By the way in the CGVI P/P presentation it is shown that recently BKW had a CGVI = 33.59 and SOL had a CGVI = 25.48. Sure EG it will be a mystery as to how to calculate a new CGVI for both of these, but even a close guess is not that hard to ascertain real value with these two. Cheers
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Postby grf » Thu Sep 30, 2004 5:16 pm

KG you mentioned
It is well worth reading the Ron Brierley book!.
What is the name of that book as I am interested in getting a copy. Many thanks Geoff
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