Outlook for 2010

Macro/Micro economic policies and how they affect the markets

Re: Outlook for 2010

Postby Disco Stu » Fri Nov 05, 2010 10:52 am

Well it looks as though it is risk back on for the time being.
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Re: Outlook for 2010

Postby benthonic » Fri Nov 05, 2010 10:59 am

as I posted somewhere, maybe not even on this forum, though a similar theme is at aussie-dollar-5972.html?view-post=55981#p55981

The surge in global liquidity now underway is likely to provide further fuel to the next major asset bubble, which is likely to already be in the process of forming. Potential candidates are gold and commodity prices, emerging markets and resources shares.

But the absence of obvious overvaluation suggests we are still in the foothills of the next bubble, which likely has years to run, providing plenty of opportunities for investors in these assets in the interim.


QE2 is confirmation of this, and as market was expecting $500b, and Fed is tipping in $600b, there is an upside surprise?
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Re: Outlook for 2010

Postby Disco Stu » Fri Nov 05, 2010 12:05 pm

It is certainly starting to look that way Benthonic, interesting article suggesting that the shorters on China (and by extention the proxy to China's growth - ie Australia) are getting squeezed and may start heading to the door en-mass. Make hay while the sun shines I suppose, but I don't want to be anywhere near the markets when it all eventually unwinds.
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Re: Outlook for 2010

Postby hybridbloke » Fri Nov 05, 2010 12:21 pm

bit of sweat is good to sharpen the concentration. scalps lining up if the hand can be kept steady.
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Re: Outlook for 2010

Postby benthonic » Tue Nov 09, 2010 3:28 pm

Macquarie Private Wealth - Equity Strategy
Global growth is already north of 4%, with emerging economies in excess of 6% and accelerating. There is no double dip in the US. China has seen its growth bottom at around 8% with a reacceleration now underway. On top of this, we now have the money printing of QE2. This is all fuelling an explosive environment for global liquidity and commodity prices. The global economy is still in the early recovery stage and yet already the supply/demand equations for iron ore, coal and copper are very tight with little new supply before 2013.

We believe the conditions have been created for a strong ongoing bull market for resources. Despite share price gains thus far, valuations remain reasonable as they are chasing cumulative EPSg over FY11 and FY12 of over 75%. That is why prospective cash flow multiples for most of the sector remain below 7x .....

QE2 will amplify the already surging US and global corporate debt market issuance levels. We believe this will also prompt a major surge in global M&A as corporates use cheap debt and surplus low yielding cash to build growth. This in turn should boost share prices and IPO activity.

Macquarie's Model Portfolio for November

Energy ............. WPL 4%, ORG 3%, WOR 2%
Mining ............. BHP 18%, RIO 7%, OZL 2%, MGX 1%, EQN 1%, PNA 1%
Cyclicals ........... LEI 2%, BLY 2%, UGL 2%,NWS 2%, SEK 2%, MYR 2%, JBH 2%
Banks .............. CBA 10%, ANZ 8%, NAB 7%
Growth ............ WOW 5%, WES 6%,
Other Financials .. CPU 2%,
Property ........... WDC 5%,
Defensives ........ CCA 3%
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Re: Outlook for 2010

Postby muhaha » Thu Nov 18, 2010 8:02 am

Could be a good day to buy today, oil , gold , dow , all ords they all seem to be near their 50 day MA .
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