I wrote a piece a while back that the gremlins ate, and I didn't bother to have another go, but an article I read a few days ago gave me the impetus to try again.
I was remembering how we mostly lived on larger blocks 50 yrs ago, and how much of our food we tried to grow ourselves (yes even in the cities).

Apples,pears peaches,apricots,grapes,tomatoes cucumbers, and the excess was stewed or bottled in the Fowlers. We even had chooks.

We had so much less disposable income then, because so much of the household budget went on food. I heard about 30% was average, and now that average as fallen to around 10%.

A recent visit to a major food bowl in Asia was an eye-opener. The fish farms on the rivers, (all catfish, because I assume they can live in the sludge) are fed on a diet which includes hormones to grow them faster, many are illegal, and the waste from the farms and others living there is horrendous to us. Industry also pours it's waste into the water around these farms.

Rice fields also abut heavy industry. This is by no means an all out attack here as I have some sympathy with this clash of the old and the new, but it is apparent that these practices cannot be sustained.

Global warming is affecting our other farming friends here and abroad.

The world pop is still increasing, and the supply of fresh water is diminishing. Adverse weather patterns, such as the floods in Asia & the UK seem? to be on the increase.

There seems to be a consensus now that food prices are on the march, but we no longer grow our own.

Here in SA irrigation allowances have been cut to less than 20% with little hope of a worthwhile increase= less food to go around= higher prices too.

We are building more homes with less water to service our existing ones, and less food.

Let's think of the ramifications if our food bill returned to 30% of our budget. We are mortified by the increase in interest rates, but this could be small beer.

Gone would be the investment property, the second or third car, the big holiday, the plasma, our luxuries. Time to go into survival mode, could we do it? Very difficult I imagine.

Some huge lifestyle changes would have to be made.

A few ramblings I'm sure others have been thinking and will add to i'm sure

I don't think we are approaching peak food. Not even in 100 years. Food production should continue to increase, mainly through better technology.

What is coming, or I should say has passed has been the end of super cheap food. Food for ten thousand years has been getting cheaper and cheaper in real terms, and I think that point has passed. Many reasons for this and the simplest one to understand is oil. Food is linked with oil right through the system, energy/fertilizer/transport. Also fibre. Cotton is a crop, so it's made from oil indirectly, and polyester, a competitor is made directly from oil.

There is no longer idle acres of land sitting around. Water aquifers are falling everywhere. A hell of a lot of irrigation in the world has been using water that took a million years to build up. Saudi Arabia exported wheat for a few short years. All from borrowed water. Cities are taking water off farmers everywhere, especially Asia.

Farms have been getting more and more efficient. In the west it only takes a few percent of the population to be farmers to feed everyone. This figure has been dropping since time began too, but it will pull up at the current amount of farmers because of machinery size. Machinery can't really get any bigger. 40 foot header fronts, 120 foot booms, it's all to do with engineering. Machines can't get much bigger. My farm is producing about 5000 tonnes of grain per man. That's about it. That figure was just 500 tonnes 30 years ago. Dairies, the same. How many cows can one man milk? How many cattle can one man and a dog look after?

Rural commodities are taking off for all the reasons that metal and energy took off, plus extra reasons like global warming and water. It's all good from where I sit.

Food prices have risen less than inflation for ten thousand years. That trend stopped not long ago, maybe only a few years ago when oil took off, and in my opinion will never return. Food production has also kept up with population growth. That will be hard to do now as well, unless something drastic happens through Africa and Asia.

Cheers.

as anthropomorphic demands on the way food is produced increase, the cost of production also increases.
grain can be produced in sympathy with the notions of the earth goddess,animal products can be produced from livestock treated like urban companion animals. the cost will go up,supply and demand works, the only other option is cheap food that is rationed.

Currently raining here HB. Hope you get some mate.

I've been laughing at all the expert grain trading advisers for a little while. They continue to compare grain prices with the average 10 year price. They continue to say crap like, prices way above the ten year average, blah blah, as if to say prices are great. As if the ten year average price means anything today. And their unfortunate followers have grain locked in at terrible prices, that are hardly profitable today, yet were good prices when oil was $20 a barrel.

All these advisers had to do was grow a crop themselves, and they may have understood how things work a bit better.

Cheers.

hybridbloke wrote: anthropomorphic .

.........."anthropomorphic"........

What the hell is that word HB. Your a farmer mate.

Another view on food prices

http://www.aireview.com.au/index.php?ac ... =6&id=7226

DWS Global Equity Agribusiness Fund is well worth a look....

Chinese farmland acquisition threatens Aust markets: Agforce
April 30, 2008 - 3:27PM
Source: ABC

Rural lobby group Agforce says a plan being considered by Chinese authorities to lease Australian farmland could put more pressure on the nation's farmers and resources.

Reports from Beijing say the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is looking to lease or buy land around the world, to ensure long-term food security.

Agforce president Peter Kenny says it could put at risk Australian production and export markets, but it should also highlight the global food shortage.

"Really it's a wake-up call I think for the rest of the world to realise that there is a shortage of food and that is going to continue and it's going to be an even bigger problem if we're not careful and particularly as far as Australia is concerned," he said.
abc logo

The end of super cheap food, as sorgman says, or a real food shortage, food just costs a hell of a lot more, and people eat less.
Reasons: water, cost of fuel, fertiliser-see s/p of incitec pivot, demand, (steel now costs the same per tonne as rice)

Anyone can still grow a backyard vegetable patch-even with a small city block. It just takes a little bit of effort and a little bit of knowledge-no big deal. Even if all you have is few pots you can still grow a few tomatoes or herbs-basically anything. People are just too lazy.
Anyone ever watch a show on SBS called Vasili's garden? It's a show that features some Italian people in Melbourne and their vegetable gardens. It's amazing how much they grow and this is in suburban Melbourne.
I'm severely disabled and still manage to grow a vegetable garden-with some help so surely anyone else could. You cannot beat the taste of home grown vegetables.

The major problem of food is water supply . water in the earth is deeping in the most part of world due to huge resource utilization by industry .The major problem is we just think about today and dont think about future . We should work on saving resources ... Food problem may affect 30% budget on developed nations ..But just think about other countries ..70% of the world is living on less than $1 a day .. Think about them .. Its a minor trouble for developed countries but developing and undeveloped ..We already loose millions of peoples due to lack of health care patented huge cost medicines now millions may die with malnutirition too ......Does any political leader care about it ?Peoples who invest in commodity to artificially inflate prices care about it ?

Don't knock The Catfish as Jonasson said:

The fish farms on the rivers, (all catfish, because I assume they can live in the sludge) are fed on a diet which includes hormones to grow them faster, many are illegal,

Now most people shudder at the thought of eating catfish, and of course never would, but if you have ever eaten BASSA, well that is exactly what you have been eating. Cheers.