just a short one , but the production risks for wheat this season is not just rainfall driven.
have heard a good educated guess that if a bad rust season kicks off early in aus, this year, there simply will not be enough fungicide available to protect the crop through all the required spray regime.
new scientist recently had an article on the new 'horn of africa' rusts that spread to the arabian peninsula last season [no aus wheat variety has any resistance to these].
still a lot of new aus wheat being sown around me this season, even though last year in a very dry spring, they broke down and now have basically no resistance. [yitpi, only for spraycan farmers]
must look at strategies for turning this belief into$
[but wheat 10% of my acreage this season, and a 20 year old variety that although yeilds less in perfect conditions, still has good rust tolerance.]

Ya gotta be happy with the prices?

Feed grain still holding up at about $250 tonne. Things almost perfect on the eastern grain belt. Excluding southern QLD, poor blokes. Thought prices would have plunged with the rain. They did for a bit, then back up. Just shows the real demand.

What are you planting if not wheat?

I'm going all wheat. Start 10 days after this next change goes through. Can't wait. Chickpeas prices huge. Too big a risk though. A wet winter in these parts and they can be a complete right off.

I've never been more optimistic. I reckon we have a good few years of super grain prices ahead. I think we have moved up to a new price range. Ethanol is partly to thank. Also global warming, oil prices, falling water aquifers. It's all good.

Rust? Yeah, Hybrid mercury was shocking. Always needed two sprays, maybe 3. Chucked it out. I don't mind spraying for rust. Don't mind doing lots of stuff if grain prices stays at these levels.

Happy planting mate.

i am on country a bit more marginal for wheat.
oats and barley are more able to cope with more sudden seasonal cut-outs.
i am still considering lentils for some heavier country, so the spray rig will get a work out with them.
season wise, up until todays half inch, i have been able to drive the semi loaded with seed and super into every paddock and out again.not often you can get up to june and say that.[ even the dodgier gateways just took a few more revs]
livestock wise, the feed growth is fantastic.some paddocks have such a strike that they have dropped out the cropping program. have kept 700 xb lambs back to bring up from supermarket weights to export [best for o.s. as usual] better lower risk margin in that than punting a crop.
dreaming of a top up hay/silage season.

duplicate post

It was a short quick rain change. I got 9 mils at 11.30 pm, last night. Just what I wanted too. We don't like planting untill the second week of June, so this extra little bit will keep me off the paddocks till then.

We are 100% croppers, although with the summer option, it makes things easier. The winter crop for us is really just a break crop for the summer plant. We never even have to use grass herbicides in wheat or barley witch is nice. Weed control in the summer crop is difficult though. Summer grasses are our biggest problem, and with the nill till, fleabane is getting a problem.

For some strange reason, ryegrass hardly even grows here on farming country, and is not a concern. But it is prolific in pasture country. Not sure why ryegrass is not a problem for us. There is some roundup proof ryegrass getting about. Once that gets down into winter crop only areas, I don't know what people will do.

Cheers.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/ ... 28822.html

It's all good HB.

I know some farmers who locked in a fair percentage of their production a few years ago because of expert advice. Ouch.

just got offered some chickpea and lentil seed-
$1400 a tonne [ex-gst], and the chicks are only 508's not genisis 90's
still time to keep checking [no-one wants to carry seed through until next season] another example of game theory in action.
[ and grain prices are now showing the effects of political policy. once the states chooses to use food as a force multiplier, we get the free ride ]

Pretty good timing with your wheat post HB. Picked the breakout perfectly.
Wonder if it can break the all time record from 96? Imagine if there was a real disaster happen? The upside of wheat would be almost unlimited. Only a few cents worth in a loaf of bread, yet wheat cannot be substituted.

Won't stop raining here. We haven't started planting yet, but still plenty of time. It should be going in now. No rain, and I might get going in a week, but it's sprinkling outside now.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home

Cheers.

dairy factories have released new seasons raw milk pricing, and it is 30% up.
not just australian issues, but a global surge in milk prices.

Just imagine the position Australia will be in if we have a continuing unprecedented resources boom as well as a coinciding and possibly new record agriculture boom. WHHOOSH.

" Every family needs a farmer or two or ten or many more!."

hybridbloke wrote:dairy factories have released new seasons raw milk pricing, and it is 30% up.
not just australian issues, but a global surge in milk prices.

hybridbloke wrote:dairy factories have released new seasons raw milk pricing, and it is 30% up.
not just australian issues, but a global surge in milk prices.

base farm gate prices are now about 40 cents a l. Farmers should be getting another 15-20cents/litre in my opinion--its such a crappy job. I grew up on a dairy farm and was a financial partner until deregulation and so I have first hand knowledge. Dairy farmers are unpaid! I will be very surprised if Australia has much of a dairy industry in ten to 15 years, land is way too expensive 4 young people to get into the industry and the returns just don't justify the effort for little financial reward. We will probably be drinking New Zealand milk in not to long a time.

g'day chesterdash, my post was intended to give an indication of the breadth of the soft commodities re-rating.
i agree that for individual dairy farmers, the price rise could be a profitless boom.
long term future of aus dairies is based on high security water [which will change] and the feed grain/milk price ratio.
the days of a bottle of water being more expensive than a bottle of milk may well be numbered.
cows as a nutriceutical factory may be a future path,but as a national grid allows water to flow from dairy to city, it is inevitable that water for grass for cows to eat will diminish, and water for grass for lawn mowers to mow will increase. just don't sell water rights cheap is the only thing.